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4月25日付 IHT の記事
East Asia's islands of contention

HONG KONG The formulaic visit to the United States by China's president, Hu Jintao, made the headlines last week, but more significant for Asian geopolitics was the near-clash between Japanese and South Korean vessels in the Sea of Japan (the East Sea, in South Korean and Chinese parlance).

Japan was about to send survey ships into an area claimed by South Korea, which responded by threatening to send patrol boats to confront them. The disputed seabed is close to a group of rocky islets called Dokdo by the South Koreans, who occupy them, and Takeshima by Japan, which also claims them.

Common sense ultimately prevailed and on Sunday the two sides agreed to resume talks about demarcating their border. But the incident was symptomatic not just of the rise of nationalism in the region but of the slow erosion of U.S. influence. For two U.S. allies and hosts of large U.S. garrisons to come close to blows would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The U.S. military presence is assumed to be the security blanket that smothers all potential national conflicts.

Meanwhile, a dispute between Japan and China over the seabed between them is gradually escalating. Earlier this month China declared an area close to a disputed zone northeast of Taiwan as off limits to shipping to enable conduct of gas exploration. Although Beijing subsequently backtracked a little, the issue will not go away.

Partly this is a question of economics - the area is viewed as a promising source of gas. But, as is the case with the South China Sea, nationalistic sentiments and strategic considerations are at least as important. The contentious area lies close to the Senkakus (Diaoyu to Chinese), seven barren rocks claimed by China but occupied by Japan and a focus of anti-Japanese agitation in China.

The rise of China is, indirectly, the cause of mutual aggravation in the region. China is taking an aggressive attitude, claiming the sea bed to the end of the continental shelf while Japan insists on a median line demarcation. But beyond the specifics of these disputes lies a reawakening of Japanese national consciousness in response to China's rhetoric of grievance against Japan, as well as the rise of its military power.

The less sure Japan is about the U.S. security blanket, the more it will tend to answer Chinese (and Korean) nationalism with its own.

Notable, too, is the unwillingness of East Asian countries to submit disputes to international or third- party arbitration, thus closing off the possibility of settlement any time in the foreseeable future. Tokyo once proposed that the Dokdo question be referred to the International Court of Justice, but Seoul declined.

There is a significant and disturbing contrast between this attitude and the willingness of Southeast Asian countries to submit at least some of their bilateral disputes to arbitration. Indonesia and Malaysia did so in the case of Sipadan and Ligitan, islands off the coast of Borneo, which the International Court awarded to Malaysia in 2002.

Even Malaysia and Singapore, which are forever having minor rows over land, water and air rights, agreed to submit dispute over one island, Pedra Branca, the site of a Singapore-operated lighthouse, to the International Court, whose judgment is expected in 2007.

It could be argued that these Southeast Asian disputes are relics of colonial history and not historical claims, like those that have made Dokdo and the Senkakus into symbols of nationalism and historical grievances. Nor do the islands submitted for arbitration have significant economic potential. But Southeast Asian countries have generally been able to negotiate seabed boundaries - between Thailand and Malaysia, for example - without too much rancor, putting exploitation of resources ahead of nationalistic issues.

The exception in Southeast Asia, of course, is China, which claims the whole South China Sea and declines to discuss the claims of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei on a multilateral basis.

In Northeast Asia the disputes have become symbols of national pride and thus not amenable to negotiation or arbitration. The best that can be hoped for is that all parties agree to differ but stop short at attempting to change the status quo, and agree to some pragmatic sharing of resources in the disputed areas.

For the time being, the prosperity that comes from economic cooperation is likely to keep these issues from boiling over. But should economic circumstances become less benign, and U.S. influence less pervasive, the dangers of escalation are all too apparent.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/24/opinion/edbowring.php


5月8日版 TIME誌 の記事

Rocky Relations
A feud over some barren islands reignites old tensions between South Korea and Japan

The future of two tiny, remote islets almost equidistant between Japan and South Korea might appear to matter only to the black-tailed gull and 21 other species of birds native to their craggy outcroppings. Without arable land or any fresh water, these 18 hectares of rocky mounds are barely habitable by humans. Indeed, the islands' population consists of as few as three dozen people, including some 30 Korean police, one or two lighthouse keepers and a married couple who have lived and fished there for more than three decades. The economic significance of the islands is no less marginal: the surrounding fishing waters are healthy but unexceptional, and there are no known stores of oil or natural gas beneath the seabed in this isolated area.

But to Japan (which calls the islands Takeshima) and South Korea (which calls them the Dokdo) these rocks carry a symbolic importance that belies their practical insignificance. Both countries have claimed the islands as their own for more than a century, and in recent weeks the historic squabble has leapt once more to the forefront of bilateral relations. The dispute flared in mid-April when Japan announced it would send two unarmed survey ships to the area to map the sea floor in advance of an international meeting in June, at which South Korea was expected to propose Korean names for underwater features in the vicinity. South Korea reacted furiously to the Japanese announcement, dispatching 20 patrol boats to the area and warning ominously of a "confrontation" if Japan's ships penetrated seas that Seoul regards as its own. After two days of intense negotiation, the two sides avoided a high-seas skirmish, thanks to a last-minute deal in which Japan postponed its survey and Korea agreed not to submit its name proposals. Would sanity prevail? Hardly. Korean President Roh Moo Hyun reignited the dispute last week with a spectacularly inflammatory televised speech. "Japan's present claim to Dokdo is an act negating the complete liberation and independence of Korea," he declared. "This is a matter where no compromise or surrender is possible, whatever the costs and sacrifices may be."

From the Falklands to the Spratlys, history is littered with bloody feuds over scraps of territory that seem stunningly unimportant to more detached observers. Roh's speech, with its bitter reference to Japan's "criminal history of waging wars of aggression and annihilation," was a powerful reminder of how emotionally charged such disputes can be—and of how strained the relationship between Korea and Japan has the potential to become.

The modern history of the dispute over these islets dates to 1900, when Korea formally declared them as its own. Five years later, the Japanese countered by claiming them as well. In 1910, Japan annexed mainland Korea, making it a Japanese colony for the next 35 years. In the aftermath of Japan's defeat in World War II, the Treaty of San Francisco did not mention the islands in the list of surrendered Japanese territories—a fact that the Japanese use to bolster claims that the islands are still theirs. But in 1952, Seoul declared that the islets were within Korea's borders and ordered the arrest of any Japanese boat that crossed the so-called "peace line." South Korea built a lighthouse and a helipad on the islands, and stationed coast guards there. A string of showdowns followed before Japan and South Korea normalized relations in 1965: Korea seized 300 ships (mostly fishing boats), and made 4,000 arrests, resulting in one Japanese death and dozens of injuries. When the countries finally formalized ties, they excluded mention of the islands from the treaty—an act of expediency that continues to haunt them.

One reason why the dispute has erupted again is that Roh has been under considerable political pressure at home. Kim Jaebum, a professor of diplomacy at Yonsei University in Seoul, says the liberal President has been widely perceived as soft on Japan—a political liability at a time when his beleaguered Uri party is preparing for hotly contested local elections in May. "He had to step it up," says Kim. "The Korean people were waiting for an explicit expression from the President." Sure enough, Roh's strident speech has been greeted enthusiastically at home, with an editorial in the Korea Times hailing it as "the toughest ever on Japan."

In Japan, Roh's diatribe initially inspired shock, followed by rationalizations and finally indifference. The Asahi Shimbun newspaper called the speech a "dangerous development," but Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi downplayed it, saying his government would respond "in a cool-headed manner." Unimpressed, last Friday Korea's Foreign Ministry rebuffed Koizumi's suggestion that he and Roh hold a summit meeting to help heal the rift. Japanese papers like the Nishi Nihon Shimbun have attributed Roh's pugnacity to his domestic political concerns, suggesting that Japan need not take his speech too seriously: "An uncompromising stance against Japan plays well into the anti-Japan nationalist sentiment of the people, which could improve his low approval ratings." One columnist openly doubted that Roh had the guts to make good on his threats, should Japan call his bluff.

Akihiko Tanaka, a professor of Eastern culture at the University of Tokyo, says Roh's speech and Japan's breezy dismissal of it demonstrate just how differently the two countries see the legacy of Japan's colonial past. "For Japan, this is a territorial issue and little more," Tanaka says. But for Korea, it's a matter of history and justice. "To them, it's another show of how Japan is not owning up to its past." In Korea, bitter memories of Japan's colonial occupation live on, harbored by people at the highest levels of government. Lee Hye Hoon, an opposition lawmaker in South Korea's National Assembly, says it's difficult for Japan and Korea to get along because "they attacked us, raped us, took everything from us ... and they still don't apologize."

Dokdo is actively promoted in Korea as a prime example of Japanese aggression, with the islets viewed as one of the first of Japan's many 20th century land grabs. Korean kindergartens teach children songs about Korea's glorious eastern islands, the Dokdo. In 2005, almost 20,000 Korean tourists (including one wedding party) visited the islands, even though it's a $350-per-person, five-hour boat trip from the mainland. According to a report by Peter Beck, the Northeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, "One would be hard pressed to find a single Korean over the age of five willing to admit that control of Dokdo does not matter." By contrast, says Hideshi Takesada, a professor of Korean politics at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies, "most people in Japan have no knowledge of the issue," and little appreciation of how deep Korean resentment runs.

In fact, Japanese society is still in thrall to the Korea Wave, a surge of interest in Korean pop, films, TV dramas and design that first overtook the nation in 2002, when the two countries co-hosted the World Cup and bilateral relations were at their best. Many Japanese politicians, meanwhile, seem either incapable of understanding Korean ire toward Japan or simply don't care. This further fuels the cycle of resentment and distrust. In 2005, for example, Shimane prefecture (the Japanese local government to which the nation claims the islands belong) passed an ordinance designating Feb. 22—the 100th anniversary of Japan's annexation of the islands—as Takeshima Day. Yu Masuda, an administrator in the Shimane prefectural government, says the goal was simply "to generate some attention" within Japan for the region's fishermen who suffer from not being able to hunt in the disputed waters. Yet the Korean response to Takeshima Day was overwhelmingly bitter, with the local government's initiative perceived as evidence of Japan's widespread, unrepentant nationalism. Korean protesters set up anti-Japan campaigns, pulled students and athletes from Japan-sponsored tournaments, canceled sister-city arrangements with Shimane towns and held demonstrations to discourage tourists from traveling to Japan. The criticism of Japan turned into a self-fulfilling prophesy as Takeshima Day 2006 took on a more jingoistic, anti-Korean tone due to Korea's anti-Japan response the previous year.

Though the vast majority of Japanese don't consider this island dispute a particularly pressing issue, there are still plenty of tough-talking, right-wing Japanese politicians to confirm Korea's worst fears that the country is just itching to press its claims. "There are probably no valuable resources under the islands," concedes Shigeru Ishiba, a prominent conservative Japanese parliamentarian. "So it's a piece of rock." Nevertheless, Japan can't abandon this particular piece of rock, Ishiba insists, because such "matters of territory are about national sovereignty."

From afar, of course, this rhetorical crossfire can seem almost comically absurd. But as history has shown, it doesn't take much for a meaningless rock to become a battleground. It's a lesson that both sides would do well to remember.

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501060508-1189390,00.html


4月26日付 IHT の記事
South Korea stokes feud with Japan over islands

President Roh Moo Hyun of South Korea stoked a territorial dispute over a cluster of rocky islets on Tuesday, lambasting Japan just days after the two nations had avoided a high-seas showdown with a compromise that neither side expected to last long.

Facing election-year criticism that he was not being tough enough on Japan, his country's former colonial ruler, Roh said he was abandoning his "quiet diplomacy" in the territorial dispute. His address Tuesday heralded a more confrontational relationship between Washington's two main allies in Asia.

In Tokyo, having succeeded in advertising Japan's claim to the islets that have been controlled by South Korea for half a century, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Japan would respond to Roh's bluster "in a cool- headed manner."

Koizumi said he was willing to meet Roh to help smooth relations.

Roh had already canceled meetings with Koizumi to protest what South Korea considers Japan's growing tendency under Koizumi to justify its militaristic past.

"The Dokdo issue has become a matter that can no longer be managed in a quiet manner," Roh said during a nationally televised speech, using the Korean name for the islands, which are called Takeshima in Japan. "We will react strongly and sternly against any physical provocation. This is a problem that can never be given up or negotiated, no matter at what cost or sacrifice."

Lying halfway between the two nations, the volcanic outcroppings are surrounded by fishing grounds and sit atop unexploited natural energy resources that are worth billions of dollars, according to some estimates.

Besides their economic value, however, the islets have recently become a symbol of mutual misgivings rooted in Japan's colonial rule of Korea from 1910 to 1945.

Tension over the long-running dispute flared anew last week when Japan said it would conduct an ocean survey in waters surrounding the islets.

South Korea dispatched gunboats to stop the Japanese vessels, by force if necessary.

In a compromise reached Saturday, Japan agreed to cancel the survey and South Korea said it would drop plans to register Korean names for undersea features near the islands at an international conference in June.

Many South Koreans accused their government of giving up too much to Tokyo, while the dispute gave Japan another chance to advertise Tokyo's territorial claim. The criticism came before local elections in South Korea in late May.

"President Roh's address helps his domestic politics," said Lee Shin Hwa, a professor at Korea University in Seoul. Harboring deep animosities toward Japan's colonial rule, South Koreans usually rally around a political leader who talks tough in diplomatic confrontations with Japan.

Roh called Japan's claim over the islands "an act that denies Korea's complete liberation."

"To our people, Dokdo is a symbol of complete restoration of sovereignty," he said. "We are saying Japan should stop insulting Korea's sovereignty and national pride through acts that either glorify or justify its past wrongs."

Which country can name the seabed features is determined by maritime boundaries between the two nations. Negotiators were expected to meet as early as next month to negotiate their "exclusive economic zones" that give them special rights over the exploration of marine resources.

For Japan, the outcome of its dispute with South Korea can affect its similar island feuds with China, Taiwan and Russia, experts said.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/25/news/korea.php


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